Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."